Interesting opinion piece in the NYT by a couple of professors of policy and international affairs. They ask, "Assuming that renewable energy sources continue to make inroads, what does that mean for countries like Russia and Saudi Arabia who produce a lot of fossil fuels?" What it does NOT mean is that they will fade away: their products will be in demand for awhile, though of course the overall demand for them will drop. The authors conclude
1) Price volatility will continue: demand will rise and fall, and that will create winners and losers. Unfortunately Russia and Saudi Arabia can produce fossil fuels really cheaply, so through the ups and downs they are likely to continue to run the show.
2) As pressure rises on Western companies such as BP and Shell, and those companies begin scaling back their use (and invest more into renewables) that will clear the way for Russia & the Saudis to have even more influence over the market.
3) At least some amount of fossil fuels will be continue to be relied on for the foreseeable future, and those countries will be the providers.
"OPEC and its partners will make up a growing share of a shrinking pie, giving them outsize influence until demand falls to much lower levels. The same is likely to be true for the share of Europe’s natural gas that comes from Russia, which is the lowest-cost supplier to the continent."
Followup, 2/2/22, from the boss himself: "'We have an OPEC+ agreement, and I have to honor my colleagues and my friends,' Saudi oil minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told S&P Global Platts in January at a conference in Dubai."
